Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
